Commentaire sur la victoire de Obama en version anglaise
After Iowa, Barack Obama is on a roll and Hillary Clinton is on the ropes
Friday, January 4th 2008, 1:48 AM (Cliquer le titre pour voir l'infographie)
"What do we do now?" was the question Robert Redford's character asked his handlers after his stunning victory in the 1972 political gem, "The Candidate." It's a question that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be asking themselves today, though for very different reasons.
Obama's smashing victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses was more than just history - it was an exclamation point on an improbable quest. The decisive margin anoints him as the clear Democratic front-runner and suddenly, the nomination is within his grasp. If he can capitalize on the moment and sweep New Hampshire next week, he will be in a position to go all the way. Clinton is in trouble, and she knows it. Her flat concession speech, gracious under the circumstances, reflected the devastating facts. Her third-place finish, 9 points behind Obama and a single point behind John Edwards, is irrefutable proof that the aura of invincibility is gone. She is now in a fight she never expected and didn't want. New Hampshire, which she always counted on, suddenly looms as crucial.
What's surprising is that the results weren't surprising. The trend was clear to the naked eye. Ever since the Oct. 30 debate in Philadelphia, where Clinton dodged every tough question, including on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, the vaunted Clinton machine - Bill and Hil and those veteran war-roomers - was running on empty. The tricks that always worked before didn't work anymore. It was all vapors.
The nostalgia for the '90s, a move for a restoration of the Clinton presidency, isn't a persuasive rationale. The flaw was on display in her speech - surrounded by Bill and some of his old aides, she was a tableau of the past, not the future. As she ticked off mind-numbing policy plans as though the presidency is a collection of legislative initiatives, she probably lost a few early votes in New Hampshire, too. Obama gets the essence of the job he is seeking, the idealized version anyway. His victory speech was infectious. His incantation of hope, combined with an eloquent sweep of American history's celebration of the underdog, is much, much more than a promise of policy change. You can't imagine her invoking Valley Forge and Selma the way he did.
Her campaign is a campaign. His is a movement.
Yes, he's young and inexperienced and short on specifics. But he clearly represents more radical change from the status quo than she does. Whether he represents too much change is what the rest of the campaign will be about. But make no mistake - Americans are hungry for something different, race and youth be damned.
And it's not just Democrats. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee mirrored the Obama insurgency with his victory. A man who doesn't seem to know much about the world was the last man standing as Iowa Republicans sifted through a crowded field and chose the former Arkansas governor in the last two weeks.
In both parties, the temptation for the losers will be to minimize Iowa as unrepresentative. Clinton, especially, will be digging her political grave if she allows herself to believe that the results are an aberration. They are not. What happened in Iowa can happen anywhere, and it will unless she digs deep into herself and find a new passion for the race. She'll also need a little help, and Obama will probably supply some. Because of his inexperience, she can count on him making a gaffe or two. She has to pounce every time to reinforce the doubts about his readiness.
But that won't be enough. To win she has to become less calculating, less programmed. She needs to come out from behind Bubba and the barricades and the imperial court of handlers who create a bubble. She has to stop being a celebrity if she wants to be President.
In short, she has to become more human.
Maybe losing Iowa will do that for her.
Friday, January 4th 2008, 1:48 AM (Cliquer le titre pour voir l'infographie)
"What do we do now?" was the question Robert Redford's character asked his handlers after his stunning victory in the 1972 political gem, "The Candidate." It's a question that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be asking themselves today, though for very different reasons.
Obama's smashing victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses was more than just history - it was an exclamation point on an improbable quest. The decisive margin anoints him as the clear Democratic front-runner and suddenly, the nomination is within his grasp. If he can capitalize on the moment and sweep New Hampshire next week, he will be in a position to go all the way. Clinton is in trouble, and she knows it. Her flat concession speech, gracious under the circumstances, reflected the devastating facts. Her third-place finish, 9 points behind Obama and a single point behind John Edwards, is irrefutable proof that the aura of invincibility is gone. She is now in a fight she never expected and didn't want. New Hampshire, which she always counted on, suddenly looms as crucial.
What's surprising is that the results weren't surprising. The trend was clear to the naked eye. Ever since the Oct. 30 debate in Philadelphia, where Clinton dodged every tough question, including on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, the vaunted Clinton machine - Bill and Hil and those veteran war-roomers - was running on empty. The tricks that always worked before didn't work anymore. It was all vapors.
The nostalgia for the '90s, a move for a restoration of the Clinton presidency, isn't a persuasive rationale. The flaw was on display in her speech - surrounded by Bill and some of his old aides, she was a tableau of the past, not the future. As she ticked off mind-numbing policy plans as though the presidency is a collection of legislative initiatives, she probably lost a few early votes in New Hampshire, too. Obama gets the essence of the job he is seeking, the idealized version anyway. His victory speech was infectious. His incantation of hope, combined with an eloquent sweep of American history's celebration of the underdog, is much, much more than a promise of policy change. You can't imagine her invoking Valley Forge and Selma the way he did.
Her campaign is a campaign. His is a movement.
Yes, he's young and inexperienced and short on specifics. But he clearly represents more radical change from the status quo than she does. Whether he represents too much change is what the rest of the campaign will be about. But make no mistake - Americans are hungry for something different, race and youth be damned.
And it's not just Democrats. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee mirrored the Obama insurgency with his victory. A man who doesn't seem to know much about the world was the last man standing as Iowa Republicans sifted through a crowded field and chose the former Arkansas governor in the last two weeks.
In both parties, the temptation for the losers will be to minimize Iowa as unrepresentative. Clinton, especially, will be digging her political grave if she allows herself to believe that the results are an aberration. They are not. What happened in Iowa can happen anywhere, and it will unless she digs deep into herself and find a new passion for the race. She'll also need a little help, and Obama will probably supply some. Because of his inexperience, she can count on him making a gaffe or two. She has to pounce every time to reinforce the doubts about his readiness.
But that won't be enough. To win she has to become less calculating, less programmed. She needs to come out from behind Bubba and the barricades and the imperial court of handlers who create a bubble. She has to stop being a celebrity if she wants to be President.
In short, she has to become more human.
Maybe losing Iowa will do that for her.
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